News Article From: 03-21-2007
February ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the February ARMLS Reports, which were released on March 14th, was 48,756—up 1,958 listings from the January reports. After a moderate fall off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity climbed 4.2% from January to February.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to April 2005, listings have increased by almost 40,000!”
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for February rose 12.7% from the January sales figure with an increase of 558 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 946 or about 16% from January 2006. February sales quantity is typically 10% - 20% higher than January, so this quantity is not abnormal based upon the calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
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Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
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Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable. Two years ago demand was the primary driver. We expect sales to continue at a pace similar to 2002 and 2003 for several months.
With the current over-supply situation, resale housing prices have started to decline and appear to be entering an ongoing downward adjustment mode. This emerging adjustment will help to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take. |