News Article From: 02-23-2007
January ARMLS Reports
The listing count reported in the January ARMLS Reports, which were released on February 14th, was 46,798, rising for the first time in three months—up 2,551 listings from the December reports. Listings dropped in October, November and December, though still remaining extremely high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity dropped 5% from October to November, and another 2% from November to December.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to twelve months ago, listings have increased by 14,992!”
ARMLS-reported sales for January dropped from the December sales figure, with a decrease of 1,004 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down only 868, or less than 20% from January 2006. January sales quantity typically drops slightly from December’s sales, so this quantity is not abnormal based upon the calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable. Sixteen months ago demand was the primary driver. We expect sales to continue at a pace similar to 2002 and 2003 for several months.
With the current over-supply situation, resale housing prices have started to decline and appear to be entering an ongoing downward adjustment mode. This emerging adjustment will help to realign the supply and demand variable. The decline seems to be slowing in recent months, leading many to hope for a return to a normal market, but it is difficult to tell how long that will take.