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News Article From: 05-18-2007


April ARMLS Reports



Resale Listings 


The listing count reported in the April ARMLS Reports, which were released on May 11th, was 53,543—up 1,459 listings from the March reports.  After a moderate fall off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003.  The monthly listing quantity climbed 2.8% from March to April.



If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information.  Tell them, “Compared to April 2005, listings have increased by over 40,000!” 



Resale Sales


ARMLS-reported sales for April dropped 7.6% from the March sales figure with an decrease of 453 sales.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 1,237 or about 18% from April 2006.  April sales quantity is typically 10% - 20% higher than March, so this quantity is slightly off the normal calendar cycle.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales. 


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Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.




Our Assessment of the Resale Market


Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable.  Two years ago demand was the primary driver.  We expect sales to continue at a pace similar to 2002 and 2003 for several months.



With the current over-supply situation, resale housing prices have started to decline and appear to be entering an ongoing downward adjustment mode.  This emerging adjustment will help to realign the supply and demand variable.  It is difficult to tell how long that will take.



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