News Article From: 07-19-2007
June ARMLS Reports
The listing count reported in the June ARMLS Reports, which were released on July 13th, was 54,830—up 371 listings from the May reports. After a moderate fall off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity climbed 0.7% from May to June.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to June 2005, listings have increased by over 40,000!”
ARMLS-reported sales for June dropped 6.1% from the May sales figure with an decrease of 356 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 1,768 or about 24% from June 2006. June sales quantity is typically a slight drop from May, so this quantity is on par for the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable. Two years ago demand was the primary driver. We expect sales to continue at a pace similar to 2002 and 2003 for several months.
With the current over-supply situation, any overall increase in resale housing prices has totally disappeared, and is we are even seeing a slight decline. A significant price adjustment or an extended period of flat prices will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take.
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