News Article From: 10-25-2007
September ARMLS Reports
The listing count reported in the September ARMLS Reports, which were released on October 15th, was 57,970—up 763 listings from the August reports. After a moderate fall off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity climbed 1.3% from August to September.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to September 2005, listings have increased by over 40,000!”
ARMLS-reported sales for September dropped 21.4% from the August sales figure with a decrease of 929 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 2,185 or almost 40% from September 2006. September’s sales quantity is typically less than August’s. However, the drop in sales between these two months far exceeds what could be attributed to the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.
Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take.
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