News Article From: 05-23-2008
4th Issue of May 2008
April ARMLS Reports
The listing count reported in the April Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on May 14th, was 55,726—down 1,355 listings from the March reports. With the exception of December 2007, the listing count has been fairly flat for the last twelve months. This current level, however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.
ARMLS-reported sales for April rose about 13% from the March sales figure with an increase of 572. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 652 or around 12% from April 2007. April’s sales quantity is typically higher than March’s and seems to be following the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.
Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take.
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1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses most of Maricopa and