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Analysis of ARMLS Reports for December 2005

Resale Listings 

The December ARMLS Sales Reports were released this past Friday, the 13^th.  For several weeks we have been predicting that the ARMLS reported December listings would reach 25,000.  The actual number was 26,790. That is an increase of 17,684 listings since April of 2005 and an increase of over 1,567 from November.  That is a 6.2% increase in listings in the last month! 

Resale Sales

ARMLS reported sales for December fell by 801 from November.  Sales, when compared to one year ago, fell for the third consecutive month by 1,353. 

December sales fit the typical calendar cycle portrayed by the following sales graph. In this cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually fall off over the next few months before starting to climb again about the first of the year.  For each of the years shown, early summer (May through July) has the highest sales.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales. 

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Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS sales reports.  In these ARMLS reports there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown data, because of apparent discrepancies.    In addition to this, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this data.

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market.  At this time it appears that changes in the market are still being driven most significantly by changes in supply.  A year ago demand was the primary driver.   As interest rates continue to rise and appreciation stabilizes, sales will likely continue to soften.  With the skyrocketing supply, resale housing prices have stabilized and will likely fall off somewhat in the very near future.