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Analysis of Latest ARMLS Reports

Resale Listings

The listing count reported in the May ARMLS Reports, which were released on June 15^th, was 44,276—up 3,813 listings from March.  For the fifth month in a row this again sets a new record of the highest listing count that the Phoenix area market has ever reported.  The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003.  The monthly listing quantity increased almost 10% over the April report.

If your clients do not believe that the market has been changing again, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information.  Tell them, “Compared to thirteen months ago, listings have increased 30,970 and 340.1%!” 

Resale Sales

ARMLS-reported sales for May gained 794 over sales in April, which had shown an unexpected drop.  April’s unpredicted decline veered away from the typical calendar cycle portrayed by the following graph (on an annually adjusted basis, sales were down 2,836 from April 2005).  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.  For the first time in five years, April sales did not follow the pattern of rising sales towards summer.  May’s gain shows signs of the market returning to its normal pattern.

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Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market.  At this time changes in the market are being driven almost exclusively by changes in supply.  A year ago demand was the primary driver.   If interest rates continue to rise and appreciation stabilizes, sales will likely continue to soften.  With the skyrocketing supply, resale housing prices are moderating and will likely fall off significantly in the near future.