News Article From: 09-20-2006
August ARMLS Reports
The listing count reported in the August ARMLS Reports, which were released on September 13th, was 48,092—up 734 listings from the July reports. Again, for the eighth month in a row, this sets a new record of the highest listing count that the
Phoenix area market has ever reported! The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity increased 1.5% over the July report.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to twelve months ago, listings have increased 22,172!”
ARMLS-reported sales for August remained basically the same as the July sales figure with an increase of only 22 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 3,916 or about 39% from August 2005. August sales quantity is typically very similar to those for July, so this quantity is not abnormal based upon the calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable. Twelve months ago demand was the primary driver. We expect sales to continue at a pace similar to 2002 and 2003 for several months.
With the current over-supply situation, resale housing prices have gone flat and appear to be entering a downward adjustment mode. This emerging adjustment will help to realign the supply and demand variable.