The first article, Home sales likely at or near peak in Valley, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Valley housing analysts say that our local homes sales are near or at a peak, but that any slowing should be less than what is expected nationally. Housing experts are calling for Valley home prices to increase next year by at least 10%, double the rate the NAR forecast for the U.S. housing market. Metro Phoenix home sales are currently 25% ahead of last years record pace. "No one says the market is going to crash, only that the housing market's growth rate won't continue at this pace," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU. This year, the median price of a U.S. existing home is expected to climb 10.5%, to reach $204,000. Through June, the median price of an existing Metro Phoenix home had already jumped 32%, to hit a record $250,000.

 

The second article, Home sales 'close to peak', from the Arizona Republic , reports that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is predicting that prices for U.S. homes will rise next year at about half the rate of 2005. NAR predicts that the median price of an existing home will increase 5.2% to $215,200 next year, the smallest gain since 2000. Sales of existing homes is expected to fall 3.6% and sales of new homes are forecast to drop 4.5% nationwide. NAR also predict that mortgage rates will rise to 6.5% in 2006, up from an average of 5.9% in 2005. Locally, the article states that Phoenix home sales and price increases are also expected to drop in 2006, but still be at levels above the national average. Some market watchers are expecting the median cost of a Valley house to hit $300,000 next year.

 

The third article, Study: Phoenix shows low risk of housing price decline, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that PMI Group out of California ranks the Valley 34th out of the top 50 U.S. markets as having the risk of housing price declines. The top three markets most likely to experience a housing price decline are Boston, Long Island and San Diego. "The latest PMI Market Risk Index numbers show that house price risk continues to be concentrated along the coasts, as it has been for some time," said Mark Milner, chief risk officer with the PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. The PMI US Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.