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Analysis of Latest ARMLS Reports

Resale Listings 

The listing count reported in the June ARMLS Reports, which were released on July 14^th, was 45,780—up 1,504 listings from May.  For the sixth month in a row this again sets a new record of the highest listing count that the Phoenix area market has ever reported.  The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003.  The monthly listing quantity increased 3.4% over the May report.

If your clients do not believe that the market has been changing again, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information.  Tell them, “Compared to twelve months ago, listings have increased 34,036!” 

Resale Sales

ARMLS-reported sales for June fell 351 from sales in May 2006.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 3,045 or about 30% from June 2005.  June’s sales decline is not typical for this month, but is not totally uncharacteristic to the markets normal calendar pattern.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.  <!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]-->

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market.  At this time changes in the market are being driven almost exclusively by changes in supply.  A year ago demand was the primary driver.   If interest rates continue to rise and appreciation stabilizes, sales will likely continue to soften.  With the skyrocketing supply, resale housing prices are moderating and will likely fall off significantly in the near future.